Trend Analysis of the Characteristics of Typhoon Parameters around Korea

Chun, Insik; Oh, Youngmin; Chang, Kiho

Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention 2015;2(3):142-153.
Published online July 30, 2015.

Trend Analysis of the Characteristics of Typhoon Parameters around Korea

Abstract

"Increases in sea water temperature along typhoon tracks due to global warming are known to intensify typhoons. Moreover, there has been concern that global climate change may alter other typhoon parameters, including forward speed and track. In the present study, several west–east transect lines were preset around the Korean Peninsula to allow sampling of the parameters of typhoons crossing the transect lines. A tension spline interpolation technique was applied to the best-track data of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo of the WMO. Then, a trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall method for representative annual typhoons for three parameters: central pressure, maximum sustained speed, and forward speed. Furthermore, recent change in the frequency of westward typhoons was also analyzed. The results demonstrate that the central pressure exhibits an annually decreasing trend with a probability of 86.5%, at least in the prescribed southernmost transect line. However, this probability decreased drastically toward the north. The maximum sustained wind speed of the annual representative wind exhibits a similar pattern to the central pressure, but with an increasing trend. In contrast, the forward speed exhibits more significant decreasing trends, particularly along the land-based transect lines, with probabilities exceeding 80%. Finally, the number of westward typhoons was found to have increased considerably after 2000; moreover, these typhoons maintained their power much further north than previous westward typhoons"

Key Words: Global climate change; Mann-Kendall trend test; Typhoon parameters; Typhoon forward speed; Coastal disaster prevention